Recent Posts - page 2
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Triple Witching Effect on Index Investing
How does triple witching affect index funds? I took a look at the daily price action the week prior, the week of and the week after a triple witching to see if we could break out any patterns. I used… Read More ›
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The Smart Bird – Fissures in the Global Investing Environment
Off the seasonal theme but pertinent to investing today…
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The Santa Rally International
The S&P Dow Jones Indices company has confirmed that Santa truly does deliver internationally. Academic studies have long found the same seasonal patterns that exist in the US also exist in most of the major stock markets globally with one… Read More ›
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An Investing Lesson from the Lazy | TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor
Here is a post from our new blog… An Investing Lesson from the Lazy | TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor.
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Market Tops
The NYSE reports that margin debt has reached an all-time high in February of this year and then began to decline in March and April (margin debt is borrowing to buy stocks). While this may sound like good news, margin… Read More ›
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Upon the Seasonal Sell Window
We will be watching the MACD indicator for the TSP C and S Fund over the next few days. The MACD has remained on a sell but was close to turning to a buy on the last rally. Friday’s loss… Read More ›
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The S&P 500’s Seasonal Indicator Turned Weak on April 3rd
The seasonal indicator is not a trailing momentum indicator. It is based on the examination of the historical price progression during the last 64 years, 14 years, and the last 16 cycles of the four-year election cycle. Below we have… Read More ›
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The Stock Market’s Mid-Term Election Cycle Performance
“The Ides of March and the Summer of Discontent” If you take a look at recent history, the mid-term of the election cycle is the most dynamic year for the market on average. While the annual returns do not appear… Read More ›
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Protecting Your S&P 500 and Small Cap Index Funds in a Bear Market
If we look at the price progression of the last two major bear markets, we find most of the losses took place during the seasonally weak season for equities. Following the simplest seasonal strategy, Sell-in-May, would have avoided 75% of… Read More ›
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Seasonal Buy Signal for the TSP S Fund and Russell 2000 index
The TSP Advantage model has produced a seasonal buy signal for the TSP S Fund on Tuesday, 22 Oct 2013 or to an Russell 2000 index fund on 21 Oct 2013. To align with the Advantage model’s optimum long term performance, allocate… Read More ›